Working Anywhere: today it's the hospital

I'm try to take the title of this blog -- Notes From Anywhere -- seriously and blog from wherever I happen to be most days. Today, I'm in Emerson Hospital in Concord accompanying my son who is in for X-rays. The hospital accommodatingly provides guest WiFi, so I can work from the waiting area. I'm not sure this is necessarily a giant step forward, but it is handy for staying in touch.

I remember once advising a hospital client about WiFi wireless networks when they were new. Being an old radio and RF guy, I cautioned them not to introduce new wireless technologies into their environment without doing careful interference testing with life-support systems and other critical hospital gear. The guy looked at me with an amused look, and said, "You don't understand -- we already have the wireless networks; we just want to know how to manage them." Oops. So much for the all-knowing analyst.

Today, hospitals have nearly as many computers and networks as they do patients. Some patients even get WiFi in their rooms so they can stay in touch with family and friends. And visitors like me can work from waiting areas with guest WiFi. And why not? After all, you can be sick Anywhere.

Anywhere apps get a choice of development tools

Today, I'm thinking about two news items this week as I am researching mobile Web site development for my upcoming report:

• The Apple announcement that it will release its iPhone SDK and roadmap on March 6, and
• A blog post by Michael Mace writing the obituary of native mobile phone apps called Mobile applications, RIP

These two news items reflect the two camps I've talked to about Mobile Web sites. One camp believes that native mobile applications are the only way to get the responsiveness and integration needed for a great mobile experience. In the other camp, though, are a large group of people who believe that the mobile Web will evolve to capture the lion's share of mobile user attention, just as it has on the desktop.

Just like with desktop and laptop computers, I don't think mobile app development will ever be a completely "either-or" proposition; I think we'll see Web AND native app development. For example, if you want to edit photos you've loaded on our laptop, you can edit them either using a desktop app like iPhoto or Photoshop (assuming you have them installed), or you can edit them online using Snipshot.com, Picnik.com, fotoflexer.com and a host of others (assuming you have enough online access available). So why would we expect Anywhere mobile applications to be any different? Some applications will require dedicated native software, others will make more sense on the Web. Both approaches work.

Of course, Apple has already figured this out. Last year, it touted using Web technology to develop iPhone apps. This year, they're announcing the native iPhone SDK. Developers will get to choose which approach meets their customers' Anywhere needs best. The open question is which approach will generate the most excitement and enthusiasm for the platform. And while native apps have always held the edge in prior platforms like Palm and RIM devices, those platforms didn't boast browsers that were as a capable as the iPhone's. Only time will tell which tools developers will choose as their favorites, but at least developers will have the choice.

Apple's Anywhere iPhone

Apple's invitations to an event on March 6 to discuss the Apple Software Development Kit for the iPhone generated several Apple inquiries around here, and Apple COO Tim Cook's talk yesterday at the Goldman Sachs event added more fuel to the story. I thought I'd take a break from my usual "Anywhere all the time" writing, and just pass on some of the data and answers I've been providing to reporters.

• Has the iPhone wave peaked? No; in fact, I would argue that the iPhone phenomenon has just gotten started. The Apple iPhone is truly an Anywhere phone, putting communication, media, and Internet content in the palm of nearly anyone's hand anywhere in the world and on (mostly) any GSM network. Despite the iPhone only being available for sale in four countries, it's being used today in more than 100. This adoption is amazing because no official native third-party apps have been released and the device is a version 1.0 device, Apple's first effort in a market most pundits said it could never succeed in. Imagine what sales will look like when there are official distribution channels in more than four countries, when third party developers can create new iPhone applications, and when Apple has version 2.0 and 3.0 devices in the market.
• Are iPhone unlockers hurting Apple? I think this idea is way overblown. Apple receives full retail price and full retail profits for every phone it sells, locked or unlocked. The device is profitable by itself, regardless of whether it gets carrier revenue sharing or not. Further, the fact that Apple is doing carrier exclusive deals now doesn't mean it is wedded to that model, a point Tim Cook made in his presentation. So everyone who is claiming Apple is "losing" $1 billion due to unlocked phones is simply noting problems with their own models of Apple's business, not Apple's. Apple of course doesn't acknowledge or report any revenues from carriers associated with the iPhones, so any numbers or losses you hear about those are inferred speculation, not facts.
• Does Apple need to cut prices on its Iphone? Not in the least. Apple has no intent of chasing Motorola to see who can lose more money on phones in a futile attempt to gain market share. Market share isn't the name of Apple's game; consistent and growing profits are. Apple's brand says to nearly everyone in the world that its products are fashionable, easy-to-use, and a bit exclusive. Apple competing only on price would be like BMW cutting prices on its cars so they can be distributed through Wal-Mart; it would be marketing suicide.
  
  In my opinion, Apple's game plan on its Anywhere phone will likely mirror that of iPods. iPods started with one model and then gradually branched out to three or four of them (depending on whether you consider the iPod touch to be an iPod or a low-end iPhone). Even today, the 16 GByte iPod touch sells for the same price as the original iPod introduced in 2001. People should expect there to be both cheaper and more expensive iPhones over time, but that the target price points for the iPhone with touch screens and Internet capabilities will remain what they are today.
• Is Apple going to make its iPhone goal of 10 million phones by the end of 2008? Yes. Apple doesn't provide goals if it doesn't think it can both make and exceed them. While the economy and consumer spending are throwing up some roadblocks, I see Apple easily exceeding that goal by about 25% by the end of calendar 2008. And in case anyone was confused, that's the benchmark that Steve Jobs set: 10 million phones by the end of 2008, not 10 million phones in the first year of sales or the first fiscal year.

The bottom line: as the buzz at the Mobile World Congress proved, Apple changed the mobile phone market worldwide with its first and uncertain effort in a new market. Just as it did with computers, Apple isn't playing a market share game; it's building mind share. And while there only officially successful in a few countries today, imagine what will happen when they are Anywhere.

Anywhere mobility transformation in Afghanistan

On today's National Public Radio Morning Edition program, Steve Inskeep interviewed former British diplomat Rory Stuart, chief executive of the Turquoise Mountain Foundation, about the transformational nature of mobile phones in Afghanistan. While this Anywhere technology is a mixed blessing -- while mobile phones connect consumers to the rest of the world, the Taliban is using cell phones to plan attacks as well -- there is no question it is reshaping Afghan culture and its connection to the world. Where Afghanistan was once one of the most isolated countries on earth, it is now just one more place on the road to Anywhere.

How Not to Start a Briefing

I was on a vendor call today with two of my analyst colleagues. The vendor intended to update us on a revision to an existing e-mail security appliance. The product is simply known as the "8300 appliance." Of course, the product managers must have assumed that the product's functions would be somehow self-evident, because the product manager's first question to us, after introductions, was this: "Are you all familiar with the 8300 product?" Crickets started chirping on cue... Now, bear in mind that not too long ago I received a briefing from a different vendor about a product they called "the 8550." This was another gateway product -- but for SOA security. Too many briefings, plus too many arbitrary number-centric naming schemes, equals confusion. Considering how much flak Microsoft catches about their products, at least historically they haven take time to come up with names that tell you something about what their products do (e.g., Internet Security and Acceleration Server). They seem to have fallen off the sensible-naming wagon lately (Windows Live OneCare? Dynamics?), but still get it right more often than not. Mercedes and BMW can get away with numbers-only product names. Security vendors? Not so much.