Yahoo-Microsoft: the damage has been done

I'm not typically a fan of Motley Fool nowadays, but I think this article titled, "It's Too Late to Apologize, Microsoft" has the dynamics of this deal just about right: "...both Yahoo! and Microsoft's online division have been permanently damaged. Google won." And just to add irony to the mix, it's published on MSN.

Yahoo says it is not going down without a fight

As I had previously observed, price does matter to Yahoo!. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Yahoo Board has rejected Microsoft's bid. The article also notes that Yahoo has adopted poison pill provisions to prevent an unwanted takeover. Anyone who thought this was a done deal now has plenty of time to reconsider their position.

The Microsoft-Yahoo deal: price matters Anywhere

MSFTextrememakeover has a nice financial analysis of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal suggesting that this hostile takeover bid is more ego than rational investment. Read the full analysis, but I think the conclusion is right on.

[From MSFTextrememakeover: Having Fun Yet?]

...there is no way that YHOO on paper is going to be worth this price. So at some future point, MSFT is going to have to take a huge charge to write down the "goodwill" difference between what they paid, versus what YHOO was actually worth. I guesstimate that that charge will be at least $1/share, and it could easily be $2 or more depending on what the final price is, how the integration goes, etc.. Needless to say, a $1-2 charge in some future fiscal will have the effect of wiping out a large part of MSFT's overall earnings for that entire year.

As I said in the last post, if you're a MSFT shareholder you should be hoping this deal gets kiboshed by either YHOO or regulators (however unlikely). Alternatively, you should hope that MSFT and YHOO come to some other accommodation. The best option there would be a standalone entity (either under the YHOO listing or a new one), into which both YHOO and MSFT contribute and MSFT shareholders get stock.

Putting on my Anywhere hat, I can understand Microsoft's need to buy a credible mobile content creator to be relevant to Anywhere consumers. But Microsoft's claiming that this deal makes sense is a bit like saying that I need to buy a $313,000 Lamborghini Murciélago to commute to work. I can understand the need, but the price really is over the top.

Yahoo! Music: more proof music subscriptions don't work

Yahoo is its selling music service to Rhapsody America, exiting a business model that a myriad of companies have struggled with. As I wrote last year, the need for digital rights management software to ensure that a subscriber doesn't just download the world the first month and cancel the second is probably the biggest stumbling block to subscriptions, but it's not the only one. And with increasing interest in moving music to mobile devices like Blackberrys and iPhones, the whole business model is just being crushed under technical compromises. I think you're going to see two business models going forward: outright music purchases (i.e., iTunes and Amazon) and streaming music. But at this point, despite Rhapsody picking up Yahoo's customers, I think it's time to declare all-you-can-eat digital music subscriptions officially dead.